Home News Why Senate Simulations care so much about Warnock’s seat

Why Senate Simulations care so much about Warnock’s seat

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Why Senate Simulations care so much about Warnock’s seat
Sen. Raphael Warnock / Sen. Raphael Warnock gives a speech on Tuesday in Atlanta at an election night watch party. Photo by Win McNamee/Getty

by JUMA SEI

The victory of incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock in the Georgia Senate runoff could have far-reaching legislative and political ramifications for Democrats.
“The truth is that it’s not a 1% difference,” New York Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier this week. “There’s a huge difference.”

Warnock defeated former NFL and University of Georgia star Herschel Walker in a four-week runoff following a hotly contested election. Because neither candidate received more than 50% of the vote, the race was decided in a runoff.

This race was the most expensive of the 2022 election cycle, with $425 million spent between the campaigns and outside groups supporting them between the general election and the runoff.

Even though the outcome only increases the Democratic majority by one, from 50-50 to 51-49, party leaders and interest groups spent so much money because they clearly saw it as critical.

Warnock’s victory gives Democrats firm control of the Senate and makes their lives easier in a variety of ways. It provides them with a buffer when trying to pass bills, ensures committee control, and removes procedural barriers to carrying out Senate business.

After the runoff, Schumer stated that the victory had already boosted Senate Democrats’ morale. “It just gives us a lift,” he told reporters. “Encouragement, unity, and enthusiasm.”
Here are some other ways Democrats in the Senate could benefit from their two-seat majority.

Avoiding power-sharing discussions

Warnock’s victory means Schumer will not have to renegotiate a power-sharing agreement with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

After an early impasse that prevented the confirmation of President Biden’s cabinet nominees, Schumer and McConnell eventually reached an agreement to share power in the evenly divided house in 2020.

At the time, McConnell demanded that Democrats uphold the Senate filibuster, which calls for 60 senators to end discussion before a vote rather than a simple majority.

Warnock's win / Democrats now control the Senate by a 51-49 margin, thanks to Warnock's victory on Tuesday — one more vote than they have had since 2020. Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty
Warnock’s win / Democrats now control the Senate by a 51-49 margin, thanks to Warnock’s victory on Tuesday — one more vote than they have had since 2020. Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty

Only after moderate Democrats Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona said they wouldn’t vote to end the filibuster did McConnell back down from his requirement, leaving Schumer short of the necessary 51 votes to end the minority party protection.

Without McConnell’s surrender, the Senate would have been paralyzed, with Senate Democrats unable to seize full control despite having a majority.
Schumer told reporters on Wednesday that he intends to extend an olive branch in the future.

“There are a good number of Republicans in the Senate and House who are not MAGA Republicans – who understand that if the Republican Party follows the hard right and extreme members in their caucuses, they will continue to lose ground,” he said. “I intend to reach out to them and ask, ‘How can we work together in a bipartisan way?'”

There is no “veto” power in the Senate

Democrats now have enough wiggle room in their caucus to lose one vote and still move bills through the chamber without issue.
Not only will Vice President Harris not be called in for as many tie-breaking votes, but the extra seat has changed how they consider Manchin in their political calculations.

In the early years of Biden’s presidency, the West Virginia moderate frequently held his party hostage, leveraging Democrats’ narrow majority to cut some of the president’s legislative priorities on votes that required complete Democratic unity to pass. Manchin frequently mentions his discomfort with voting against the wishes of his constituents.

“I’ve always said, ‘If I can’t go back home and explain it, I can’t vote for it,'” Manchin said in a 2021 statement explaining his opposition to Biden’s Build Back Better Act as it was first proposed.
Despite the fact that the bill was eventually passed in November, Manchin forced negotiations that reduced its size, scope, and cost.

Committee structure that is decisive

Because the Senate committees are equally divided under the current power-sharing agreement, tied votes must be resolved on the Senate floor before bills or nominees can be considered.
However, Warnock’s victory means that Democrats will likely have an extra seat on every committee, paving the way for passage when senators frequently cross party lines.

To demonstrate to the American people what Democrats stand for, Schumer said, “With 51, we can go bolder and faster.”
However, it is probable that the next two years in Congress will be different from the previous two. Republicans have taken control of the House, reducing Democratic chances of passing significant legislation.

As a result, the party will almost certainly try to confirm as many judges as possible before 2024, and a 51st seat makes that easier. Former Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid introduced a rule change in 2013 that allows for these confirmations to require only a simple majority.

“We’re so proud of our track record with judges,” Schumer said following the runoff. “It’s one of the most significant things we’ve done, if not the most significant.”
Democrats have prioritized the appointment of more women and people of color to the bench.
“They’re not just corporate lawyers or prosecutors. They are public aid immigration lawyers, consumer advocates, legal aid workers, public defenders, and others “He stated. “So the bench is starting to resemble America.”

Biden, speaking ahead of Warnock’s election, admitted publicly what a 51st seat would mean for his party. “It’s always better with 51,” he said, mostly considering committee compositions.

Aside from the committees, Warnock’s election provides Democrats with a clear path for action in the final years of Biden’s presidency.
“It’s simply better,” the president added later. “The more numbers there are, the better.”

And if Democrats want to keep the Senate after 2024, every one of those votes will be crucial. In two years, the party will confront a challenging environment to maintain control of the chamber with incumbent Senate Democrats up for reelection in states with strong Republican leanings like West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio.

Domenico Montanaro, NPR’s senior political editor/correspondent, contributed to this report.

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